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WSC 2007 Commentary: Round 16
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The hotel's connection to the Internet was down for almost an hour just now; site updates were interrupted.
The last round of the day pits Suanne Ong (MYS) against Wellington Jighere (NGA) at Board 1. The top flight size at this point in the tournament is fixed at 12 players, and some pairings congestion is starting to develop at the top. There is no way to pair the top eight players without at least one repeat pairing, so the top ten players are being paired with each other.
Ong, one of four players at 11-4 therefore gets to return to the top board to face Jighere, in the lead at 12-3 despite his loss last round to Joel Wapnick (CAN). The other 12-3, Nigel Richards (NZL), plays tenth-place Panupol Sujjayakorn (THA) at Board 2.
At the end of the day, Wellington Jighere (NGA) and Nigel Richards (NZL) are at 13-3, Ganesh Asirvatham (MYS) is at 12-4, and John O'Laughlin (USA), Joel Wapnick (CAN), Hubert Wee (SGP), Suanne Ong (MYS), Adam Logan (Wsc), Edward Okulicz (AUS) and Tim Adamson (USA) are at 11-5. It looks like it will take at least 17 wins to make it to the finals, so everyone has their work cut out for them.
Based on 400 simulated conclusions of the tournament, assuming players play according to their ratings, about 60% of the time the top 17-7 player makes it to the finals and only 2% of the time do both players need at least 19-5. Jighere and Richards each make it to the finals 50% of the time, Asirvatham 40%, O'Laughlin and Wapnick 10%, Logan and Okulicz 5%, and no one else more than 5%. It was a Jighere-Richards final 20% of the time, and in 85% of cases, one of them made it. The lowest-ranked player who qualified once in the simulation run was 40th-ranked Adam Philpotts (Eng).
Tomorrow morning sees the top 12 paired as follows: Jighere vs. Helen Gipson (Eng), Richards vs. Odette Carmina Rio (PHL), Asirvatham vs. Okulicz, O'Laughlin vs. Adamson, Wapnick vs. Logan and Wee vs. Ong. It's going to be an exciting day, so I'm off to bed early.
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